June 2021 Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book

DISCLAIMER: Below are excerpts from the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book published on June 2, 2021. It "... was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on information collected on or before May 25. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials."

The excepts are chosen for their relevancy to the recruitment, staffing, employment services, and IT services sectors. The inclusion or exclusion of any sections or wording, the inclusion of each District's service areas (note that sections of some states are divided and end up in more than Fed District), as well as emphasizing certain sections with special typefaces (e.g. bold-faced and / or highlighted) is done solely at the discretion of steinbergemploymentresearch.com. The full report can be found at the Federal Reserve Board.

First District  --  Boston (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI & VT)  return to District list

Business activity in the First District expanded at a moderate pace on average, with notable variation across sectors. Restaurant sales were up sharply in recent months, surpassing their comparable 2019 levels. Automobile and home furnishings sales were flat but at very high levels, and a discount retailer saw moderate sales increases. Most manufacturers reported moderate to strong revenue increases, while two had flat but robust sales. ... Labor demand strengthened, but hiring was held back by widespread labor shortages. Amidst intensified recruiting efforts, wage increases varied across sectors. ... Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Employment and Wages

Labor demand strengthened but many firms reported difficulties in hiring and retention. Staffing firms reported high demand for labor across a range of sectors. Retail headcounts were level despite accelerating labor demand, as firms — especially restaurants — faced pronounced labor shortages. Manufacturers described ambitious hiring goals: one planned to hire 10,000 workers and another had open positions equal to more than 10 percent of total staff. While the former firm did not anticipate market constraints on labor supply, other manufacturers reported unusual difficulties finding workers. In this context of higher labor demand, wage increases were slight to moderate among manufacturers, wages for restaurant workers also went up, and selected hourly workers enjoyed wage increases of up to 30 percent. Signing bonuses and enhanced recruiting efforts were mentioned with increased frequency. Among the barriers to labor supply, firms cited generous unemployment benefits, childcare responsibilities, and safety concerns.

Manufacturing and Related Services

Of the eight firms contacted this cycle, six reported moderate to strong revenue gains in 2021Q1 from the previous quarter and two said that sales were roughly flat. All reported higher sales versus the same period a year ago. Year-over-year growth was exceptionally strong for suppliers to the semiconductor and health care industries, respectively, and a provider of diagnostic services to veterinarians also reported strong sales increases from one year ago. These results were not distorted by pandemic-related declines in 2020. Two firms that reported being inundated with orders pointed out that customers were placing the same order with multiple suppliers, and so felt that results were perhaps inflated relative to true demand.

Contacts cited two main limits to growth: labor scarcity and supply chain issues. The dearth of semiconductors remains a major problem, but contacts also cited long lead times for a variety of other inputs. Supply constraints held back production for some contacts, but most were able to meet their output goals and none made major revisions to their capital expenditures plans. All contacts were optimistic for the rest of 2021 and some revised their forecasts up. All anticipated relaxing any remaining COVID restrictions over the summer.

Staffing Services

First District staffing firms reported mixed results ranging from modest revenue declines to robust gains in the first quarter of 2021 from the previous quarter. Two out of four firms said that 2021Q1 had been their strongest quarter since before the pandemic, with sales increases as high as 28 percent. Firms described labor demand as robust across most fields, and especially strong for direct hires in skilled positions. Conversions from temporary to permanent employment increased. Contacts expressed growing concerns about weak labor supply, but one said there was an ongoing surplus of low-skilled workers. One firm reported sharply higher pay rates for selected positions and said that the higher rates reflected a combination of labor scarcity and growing business confidence. Other firms launched new recruiting campaigns to combat labor scarcity. Some contacts perceived that generous unemployment benefits were the deciding factor holding back labor supply, but others expected at least a modest boost in labor supply as vaccination rates climbed and infection rates declined.

Second District  --  New York (CT, NJ & NY)  return to District list

Economic activity in the Second District continued to grow strongly in the latest reporting period, as vaccinations expanded and COVID cases abated across the District. Business contacts expressed widespread optimism about the near-term outlook. The labor market has strengthened further, with contacts reporting increased employment and wages, as well as difficulties hiring and retaining staff. ...

Employment and Wages

The job market strengthened further in recent weeks, with more businesses reporting a pickup in employment and widespread labor shortages. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions. Similarly, an upstate employment agency noted increased hiring activity for both payroll and contract workers and indicated that filling job openings have been challenging. Many business contacts ranked staffing as a top business concern, especially at the lower end of the wage spectrum, and attributed this to a combination of workers' health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits.

A broad array of businesses plans to add staff in the coming months — particularly those engaged in leisure & hospitality, manufacturing, retail, and wholesale trade. A major employment services firm expects the tight labor market to intensity, as businesses bring staff back to the office and many workers are looking to change jobs.

Wages have continued to grow moderately, with especially widespread increases in the retail and wholesale trade sectors. Looking ahead, a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages.

Manufacturing and Distribution

Activity continued to grow strongly in the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors but slowed somewhat in transportation & warehousing. Contacts continued to report widespread supply disruptions and delays at ports and in trucking. Looking ahead, businesses in all these sectors continued to express widespread optimism about near-term business prospects, despite ongoing concerns about the future availability of workers and materials.

Services

Service industry contacts also reported sturdy growth in the latest reporting period. Contacts in the hard-hit leisure & hospitality sector noted exceptionally strong gains in business activity. Businesses in the information, professional & business services, and education & health sectors all noted a continuation of fairly brisk growth. Looking to the months ahead, contacts in all these sectors expressed widespread optimism about business prospects. ...

Third District  --  Philadelphia (DE, PA & NJ)  return to District list

On balance, business activity in the Third District continued to grow moderately during the current Beige Book period; however, activity in most sectors remained below levels observed prior to the pandemic.  As normal activity resumes, contacts have reported increasing demand. However, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions have also continued. Some contacts observed that some of the perceived strong demand may represent the broader (duplicative) search efforts of employers for labor and producers for parts.... Net employment continued at a modest pace of growth, while wages and prices continued to grow modestly and moderately, respectively. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment continued to grow modestly overall. The share of firms reporting employment increases broadened to one-third among nonmanufacturers, while reported increases edged back to one-fourth among manufacturing firms. Overall, average hours worked rose again but for a smaller share of all firms.

Nearly all firms reported difficulty hiring sufficient labor. Contacts at staffing firms reported ongoing demand for workers, unusually high levels of open orders, and a dearth of qualified job candidates. While demand clearly exceeds the supply, contacts did note that perceived demand may be overstated by clients placing orders with more staffing firms than is typical.

Wages continued to rise modestly. The percentage of nonmanufacturing firms reporting higher wage and benefit costs per employee edged above one-third, while the share reporting lower wages remained very low. Prior to the pandemic, the share of firms reporting compensation increases averaged well over one-third. Across all sectors, firms continued to report raising wages and offering signing bonuses, retention bonuses, and referral bonuses to compete for scarce labor resources.

Manufacturing

On average, manufacturing activity continued growing moderately. About 40 percent of the firms reported that increases of shipments and new orders were somewhat higher. On net, manufacturing activity remained below pre-pandemic levels.

As with perceived demand at staffing firms, many manufacturers have stated that their production would be higher but for labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. A good portion of the perceived demand appears to be real, as order backlogs, inventories, and delivery times increased further and were at or near record levels in May.

Nonfinancial Services

On balance, nonmanufacturing activity continued at a moderate pace of growth. Over one-third of the firms reported increases in sales or revenues; however, most firms continued to note that output remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Fourth District  --  Cleveland (KY, OH, PA & WV)  return to District list

The economic recovery gained strength in recent weeks, and contacts across an array of industries reported healthy gains in customer demand. ... Hiring activity was reportedly modest despite the improvement in customer demand, and many firms indicated they were operating with fewer staff members than they would like because of a dearth of job applicants. Consequently, a greater share of firms boosted wages, particularly for hourly workers on the lower end of the pay scale. Price hikes became more widespread as firms attempted to keep up with rising costs for materials and labor.

Employment and Wages

Staff levels increased modestly, despite widespread reports that customer demand had strengthened. Many firms commented that their headcounts were below desired levels because there were too few applicants for open positions. The problem was acute for firms in consumer-facing industries. A few retailers and restaurants noted they operated with reduced hours or had closed locations because they were short-staffed. One convenience store chain tried to increase its staff level for the past month, but unsuccessfully. As a result, 10 of its stores operated for four fewer hours than desired each day. Many manufacturers also said they were short-staffed, and several noted they were using overtime to fill the staffing gap. Others indicated that they were automating processes to keep up with demand and to reduce labor needs. Contacts in several industries observed an increase in employee turnover, which they attributed to workers' feeling more confident leaving their jobs for higher wages or for more suitable positions.

The dearth of available workers motivated a greater share of firms to raise wages. About 55 percent of our survey respondents increased wages over the past two months, up from about 40 percent in the prior period. Reports of wage increases were widespread and were especially common among manufacturing, retail, and freight contacts. One staffing company contact remarked that he turned away prospective clients that offered starting wages of less than $13 per hour because he will not be able to find anyone at that wage.

Manufacturing

Demand for manufactured goods continued to increase strongly. Contacts cited strength in demand for products related to housing, autos, and other durable consumer goods. .... Many contacts noted that output growth was constrained by shortages of hourly-wage workers, extended lead times for inputs, and depleted inventories. ... Manufacturers generally expected demand to continue to rise in coming months.

Professional and Business Services

Demand for professional and business services remained strong. Authentication services continued to benefit from the further expansion of ecommerce. Also, demand for consulting and technical services increased as more companies began to recover from the pandemic. Overall, contacts anticipated that demand would continue to grow as firms feel more comfortable moving forward with projects that had previously been put on hold.

Fifth District  --  Richmond (MD, NC, SC, VA & WV)  return to District list

The regional economy expanded moderately since our previous report. Manufacturers reported strong growth in shipments and new orders, intensifying already-sizeable backlogs and long lead times. ... Despite the easing of COVID-related restrictions, some restaurants and hospitality services were unable to open to full capacity because they were unable to hire more workers. Similarly, demand for nonfinancial services rose but growth was constrained by labor shortages. ... Employment increased modestly, but many firms reported having difficulties filling open positions. Prices rose sharply in recent weeks as shortages of labor and materials led to higher costs, some of which translated to higher prices to customers.

Employment and Wages

Employment rose modestly in recent weeks, but job growth was somewhat constrained by labor shortages as firms across a variety of industries reported having difficulty filling open positions. One contact speaking about the hospitality sector thought that many former workers were either choosing to remain unemployed or had found new jobs in another industry. Several contacts also noted increased turnover and one reported that employees were leaving for advancement opportunities. Wages increased moderately, overall. Strong demand for workers, particularly at the entry-level, drove up starting wages. Several employers also noted that raising wages for entry-level positions led them to raise wages to retain more experienced staff.

Manufacturing

Fifth District manufacturers saw strong growth in demand in recent weeks, as both shipments and new orders increased. Manufacturers of materials, home goods, and food reported especially high demand. Lead times lengthened, and inventories of inputs fell. Backlogs of orders grew, as shortages of labor and input goods constrained production. Trucking and shipping container shortages, as well as delays at ports, contributed to difficulties in receiving inputs and in getting final goods to customers. Because of the delays in receiving and high costs of inputs, many manufacturers looked for substitutions for regular inputs and eliminated certain products.

Nonfinancial Services

The demand for nonfinancial services rose moderately in recent weeks. An increase in health services demand was driven by non‑COVID-related services and elective procedures. A university president reported a substantial spike in applications, but noted that applications from lower income students were down slightly. Meanwhile, an advertising agency reported solid growth in new ad spending, particularly from small businesses. There were several reports, however, that the inability to find additional workers was limiting sales and revenue growth.

Economic activity in the Sixth District expanded at a moderate pace, on net, from April through mid-May. Demand for labor strengthened, though shortages among low-skilled workers persisted. Wage pressures increased for positions in high demand. ...

Employment and Wages

Overall employment in the District increased since the previous report. Contacts reported strengthening demand for labor as economies in the region began to reopen. Demand was strongest among lower-skilled positions, and employers reported that labor availability among that segment was very low. Shortages were also noted among skilled trade workers, nurses, IT workers and commercial drivers. Many employers continued to state that expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments were keeping would-be workers on the sidelines; others indicated that childcare, transportation issues, and the inability to guarantee hours were key factors in preventing potential workers from seeking employment. Employers indicated there was a great deal of churn among low-skill, low-wage positions, and many reported that labor shortages had a limiting effect on services to customers, as well as the production of goods, which is contributing to supply chain disruptions. Several contacts anticipate that labor shortages will abate this fall but there is a great deal of uncertainty around how much supply will materialize. For firms with limited supply of labor in their markets, opportunities to offer remote work for some positions have removed geographic barriers, allowing employers broader access to talent.

Wage pressure picked up from April through mid-May, and upward pressure was most notable among low-skilled positions. Within this segment, reports of wage increases were more widespread with referral and signing bonuses becoming increasingly more common. Among the more skilled positions, wage increases were more modest.

Seventh District  --  Chicago (IA, IL, IN, MI & WI)  return to District list

Economic activity in the Seventh District increased moderately in April and early May and approached its pre-pandemic level. Contacts expected strong growth in the coming months. Employment, consumer spending, business spending, and manufacturing production all increased moderately, while construction and real estate was flat. Wages and prices rose moderately and financial conditions improved slightly. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment increased moderately over the reporting period, and contacts expected a strong increase over the next 12 months. ... Help wanted signs sprouted across the District as businesses sought to meet growing demand. Contacts across sectors reported greater difficulty in finding workers, particularly at the entry level. Employers, temp agencies, and workforce development organizations pointed to a number of factors limiting labor supply, including health safety concerns, childcare challenges, cutbacks in public transportation schedules, job search fatigue, and financial support from the government. Overall, wage and benefit costs increased moderately. However, contacts across sectors noted strong pressure to raise wages, particularly at the entry level, and there were widespread reports of businesses offering signing bonuses. In addition, there was an increase in reports of firms hiring employees away from other firms by offering greater pay.

Business Spending

Business spending increased moderately in April and early May. ... Many manufacturing contacts said inventories were below comfortable levels. Contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. . ...

Manufacturing

Manufacturing production increased moderately in April and early May despite widely reported supply chain challenges. Most manufacturing contacts said that business was above pre-pandemic levels. ... Specialty metals manufacturers reported a solid increase in shipments, but also a large increase in backlogs as they struggled to keep up with demand.

Contacts reported that economic conditions have moderately improved since our previous report, although growth was robust in some sectors. Many contacts described a situation in which growth in demand for their products or services is outpacing their growth in capacity. Contacts cited product and material shortages and low staffing levels as key constraints. Many supply chain issues also stemmed from labor shortages at suppliers' facilities. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment has increased modestly since our previous report. Contacts across industries reported hiring to meet higher demand. Many, however, noted shortages for both skilled and unskilled labor. One St. Louis job fair, held by a dozen restaurants to fill more than a hundred positions, drew barely a dozen applicants. Contacts attributed this scarcity to increasing demand for labor in other sectors, unemployment benefits, and workers' healthcare and childcare concerns; one manufacturer, so affected by childcare difficulties, planned to use federal aid funds to address the issue. Many firms reported difficulty maintaining employee morale and engagement. A high-end restaurant owner reported only a single employee who never came in late or missed a shift in a month after offering a $1000 bonus for doing so. Some firms turned to automation; one manufacturer reported doing so after seeing a 70% turnover rate in new hires.

Wages have increased moderately. Employers specifically reported increasing starting wages and sign-up bonuses to attract new hires, though small firm wages remained more stagnant. ...

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity has strongly increased since our previous report. Survey-based indices suggest that production, capacity utilization, and new orders have strongly increased. Some firms are experiencing large order backlogs as supply chain issues and labor shortages have constrained production. ... Contacts also reported that they are struggling to find and maintain employees due to competition with other industries, especially as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. ...

Nonfinancial Services

Activity in the nonfinancial services sector has increased slightly since our previous report. About two-thirds of contacts indicated that sales met or exceeded expectations during the second quarter.... Several healthcare contacts reported lingering issues from COVID-19, such as higher input costs and tighter hospital budgets. An IT service contact reported a slowdown in new projects due to difficulties connecting with new clients.

Ninth District  --  Minneapolis (MI, MN, MT, ND, SD & WI)  return to District list

Ninth District economic activity grew at a moderate-to-strong pace since early April. Employment grew moderately, with strong hiring demand outpacing labor availability. Wage pressures were moderate overall, and wholesale price pressures increased briskly while consumer prices increased more moderately. ...

Tenth District  --  Kansas City (CO, NM, MO, NE, OK & WY)  return to District list

Conditions in the Tenth District economy continued to improve at a moderate pace in April and May, and contacts in most sectors anticipated additional gains in the months ahead. ... Manufacturing activity expanded robustly, and almost two-thirds of manufacturers reported that new orders were at or above pre-pandemic levels. Contacts also reported sales gains in the wholesale trade, professional and high-tech, and transportation sectors. ...

Employment and Wages

District employment continued to increase modestly during the survey period in both the services and manufacturing sectors, with a slight majority of contacts in both industries indicating that employment levels were now at or above pre-pandemic levels. Recent employment gains in the services sector were driven by hiring in the retail and wholesale trade industries, while transportation, auto, and real estate contacts reported slight declines. Looking ahead, services contacts expected modest increases in employment in the coming months, with slightly stronger gains in tourism and wholesale trade. Manufacturers anticipated both employment levels and hours to rise moderately in the next few months.

The majority of contacts reported labor shortages, with many contacts noting demand for all positions and several others in need of truck drivers and technicians. More than three-quarters of contacts reported that the inability to find workers with the required skills was restraining hiring plans. Wages rose moderately, and while the majority of contacts expected wage growth to remain moderate throughout 2021, more than one-third of manufacturing and services contacts expected to raise wages by 4 percent or more at their firms.

Manufacturing and Other Business Activity

Manufacturing activity expanded robustly since the last survey as production and new orders increased at both durable and nondurable goods plants, albeit with stronger gains among durable goods producers. Almost two-thirds of respondents indicated that new orders were either at or above pre-pandemic levels. Looking ahead, both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers expected moderate gains in production, new orders, and capital expenditures in the coming months.

Outside of manufacturing, sales rose robustly at wholesale trade firms, moderately at transportation firms, and modestly at professional and high-tech services firms in May. ...

Eleventh District  --  Dallas (LA, NM & TX)  return to District list

The Eleventh District economy continued to expand at a solid pace during the reporting period. Growth in the manufacturing and nonfinancial services sectors was strong, though activity remained below pre-pandemic levels. ... Employment growth was moderate, and upward wage pressures continued as hiring remained a key challenge for many companies. ... Outlooks improved, though there was widespread apprehension about the sustainability of current demand growth in light of supply constraints, difficulty hiring, and rising costs.

Employment and Wages

Employment expanded at a moderate pace. Lack of labor availability, particularly for low-skilled positions, was a growing concern among firms trying to hire or recall workers, with a majority noting a lack of applicants and generous unemployment benefits as impediments to hiring. Many contacts, particularly accommodation and food service firms, reported sizable numbers of unfilled positions, and some noted that existing staff have had to take on responsibilities outside of their normal jobs. Some firms noted difficulties getting applicants to show up for interviews, which further hampered hiring.

Wages continued to increase, with reports of significant upward pressure in industries having trouble finding and retaining workers. There were multiple reports of considerable wage pressures for mechanics, warehouse employees, construction specialty trades, and truck drivers. A manufacturer said that even with a starting hourly wage of $14 for non-skilled workers, they were unable fill 20-plus open positions.

Nonfinancial Services

Nonfinancial services expanded strongly over the reporting period. Demand growth was broad based, led by increases in leisure and hospitality, transportation, and professional and business services.  ... Staffing firms reported broad-based increases in demand. ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded significantly during the reporting period of April through mid-May. ... Activity in the consumer and business services sectors strengthened somewhat.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity continued to expand at a modest rate. New orders growth remained strong, especially for wood products, chemicals, manufactured metals, computers, electronics, and manufactured food products. Yet delivery delays and shortages of input materials, such as semiconductors, continued to hold back production and decreased inventories in some cases. Wood product manufacturers in the Pacific Northwest, already operating at full capacity, reported having to delay production of some orders. A contact in Southern California noted that capacity utilization rates in manufacturing of renewable energy equipment have normalized, and new orders are generally growing.

© 2020, Bruce Steinberg.  All rights reserved.

last updated June 03, 2021