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March 2018 Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book



DISCLAIMER: Below are excerpts from the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book published on March 7, 2018. It "... was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before February 26, 2018. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials."

The excepts were chosen for their relevancy to the recruitment, staffing, employment services, and IT services sectors. The inclusion or exclusion of any sections or wording, the inclusion of each District's service areas (note that sections of some states are divided and end up in more than Fed District), as well as emphasizing certain sections with special typefaces (e.g. bold-faced) was done solely at the discretion of steinbergemploymentresearch.com. The full report can be found at the Federal Reserve Board.

The next Beige Book is expected to be released on April 18, 2018, at which time we will offer our next summation. If you want to receive notification when it is posted, please fill-in the form above.

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First District -- Boston Fifth District -- Richmond Ninth District -- Minneapolis
Second District -- New York Sixth District -- Atlanta Tenth District -- Kansas City
Third District -- Philadelphia Seventh District -- Chicago Eleventh District -- Dallas
Fourth District -- Cleveland Eight District -- St. Louis Twelfth District -- San Francisco

 


 

First District  --  Boston (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI & VT)  return to District list

Economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the First District, with almost all retail and manufacturing respondents citing sales and revenues in recent weeks ahead of year-earlier levels. By contrast, staffing firms reported year-over-year revenue declines, reflecting ongoing difficulty finding workers to fill openings. ...

Employment and Wages

Most responding firms said labor markets were tight. Retail contacts noted increased difficulty hiring workers in some categories and said they expected the labor market to tighten further over the coming year. Merit raises for existing retail employees were in the range of 2.5 percent to 4.0 percent. One large retailer planned to pass along half its savings from the corporate tax cut to selected workers in the form of higher wages, while a smaller retailer said it planned to raise salaries a bit to match the wage increases announced by some prominent retail chains as a result of the tax cuts. A manufacturing contact with declining sales laid off temporary workers but has, so far, avoided any layoffs of permanent workers. Otherwise, no manufacturing respondents reported any major revisions to their hiring, although several said the market was particularly tight for skilled workers from machinists to electrical engineers. Manufacturing contacts reported higher starting salaries and longer waits to fill open positions. Staffing firms noted high labor demand from clients across the board, regardless of industry or occupation, paired with a dearth of candidates to fill open slots. They reported that bill rates and pay rates have risen, with some noting local minimum wage increases as a source of upward movement.

Manufacturing and Related Services

Only one of the ten First District manufacturers contacted this cycle reported lower sales--a gun maker. Otherwise, all manufacturing contacts reported higher sales than a year ago. Contacts in the semiconductor area reported strong sales and new orders. Demand was strong in other industries as well, including a manufacturer of membranes used in batteries and filters who reported December sales up 10 percent to 15 percent versus the previous year.

Several contacts reported constraints on the supply side. Two said they faced shortages of electronic parts; one attributed the shortages to new phones that "soaked up world supply" for selected components. Another supply issue was trucking. A contact said that companies now have to plan well in advance to guarantee trucking capacity; finding it at short notice is either impossible or very expensive--the main issue is a shortage of drivers.

Manufacturing respondents had a positive outlook. In general, contacts were increasing capital expenditures, although only one reported a major increase in spending (to build a new plant in New Hampshire). Contacts said that it was too soon to determine the effect of the new tax code on capital spending.

Staffing Services

New England staffing firms have seen mostly negative results over the last quarter of 2017 and the start of 2018, with the majority reporting revenue declines year-over-year. For most respondents, this reflects a low unemployment environment that has slowed hiring volumes and increased competition for the remaining labor supply. Some also remarked on the entry of new tech firms specializing in job posting sites, which has made it easier for companies to host job searches without using intermediaries. This has sparked experimentation as they look for ways to distinguish themselves through advertising, branding, improving online reviews, and increased attention to building relationships with potential talent. One respondent reported the temporary placement side of their business was the strongest, while most noted that few workers want temporary positions in the current labor market. All anticipate the continuation of a robust economy and expect to continue to work under the constraints of a tight labor market for the foreseeable future.

 

Second District  --  New York (CT, NJ & NY)  return to District list

Economic activity in the Second District grew at a modest pace in the latest reporting period, while the labor market has remained tight. ... Growth in the manufacturing and distribution industries slowed to a moderate pace, and activity declined in some service industries. Consumer spending has weakened somewhat, though this was partially attributed to unseasonably harsh weather across much of the District. ...

Employment and Wages

The labor market has remained tight, while hiring activity has been steady. One employment agency in upstate New York noted that hiring was sluggish in January but picked up in February. A major New York City agency indicated that labor demand has remained brisk, while qualified candidates have been in increasingly short supply--particularly for jobs requiring technical skills. One contact noted that drug testing and background checks have disqualified many job applicants.

Business contacts in most industries indicated that they are expanding staff modestly, with the exception of retailers, who indicated that they have reduced staff slightly. Hiring plans for the months ahead have remained fairly strong.

Businesses in the service sector reported further acceleration in wages, and a sizable proportion of firms across most industries indicated plans to raise wages in the months ahead. A New York City agency reports that most new hiring involves recruiting candidates who are already employed, and that this has made businesses increasingly negotiable on wages. A number of contacts in industries such as health care, retail, and restaurants noted they have been squeezed by wage pressures, including the recent hike in New York State's minimum wage rates. Some businesses have refrained from raising wages that are already above the new minimum.

Manufacturing and Distribution

Manufacturers and wholesalers reported that growth slowed to a moderate pace, while transportation firms indicated that activity leveled off following robust growth in late 2017. Looking ahead, manufacturers expressed increasingly widespread optimism about the near-term outlook and noted that they were planning on boosting capital spending. Contacts in wholesale distribution and transportation were moderately optimistic.

Services

Reports from service-sector firms were mixed. Businesses in the information and leisure & hospitality industries reported that activity has declined, though part of this--at least for the latter--may be weather-related. Contacts in professional & business services and education & health again reported modest growth in activity.

Still, service sector businesses were generally optimistic about the near-term outlook, except in leisure & hospitality, where optimism was more subdued. ...

 

Third District  --  Philadelphia (DE, PA & NJ)  return to District list

Aggregate business activity in the Third District continued at a modest pace of growth during the current Beige Book period. Nonauto retail sales, tourist activity, manufacturing, nonfinancial services, and nonresidential leasing markets grew modestly, while little change was noted by contacts from new home construction, existing home sales, and nonresidential construction. ... On balance, employment, wages, and prices continued to grow modestly. The percentage of firms anticipating continued growth over the next six months remained essentially the same; however, the percentage fell somewhat among manufacturers and rose among nonmanufacturers. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment continued to grow at a modest pace during the current Beige Book period. Manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms reported ongoing net additions to staff, while average hours worked edged higher over the period for manufacturing firms but fell among nonmanufacturers.

On balance, wage growth held steady at a modest pace; the share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting increases held steady at about one-third. Most banking contacts noted the apparent disconnect between frequent talk of labor shortages and the lack of evidence that wages are rising significantly in response.

Staffing firms reported being busy in many of the District's labor markets; wage pressures varied a bit more. In two markets, wage rates were up about 3 percent, while firms pushed back against 3 percent hikes in another market with mostly manufacturing clients. Staffing contacts also noted healthy receivables and an absence of any other signs of financial deterioration from clients.

Manufacturing

On balance, manufacturing activity continued at a modest pace of growth, with little change in shipments and in general activity, although orders dipped somewhat.

The makers of chemicals, primary metal products, industrial machinery, and electronic equipment continued to note gains in new orders and shipments; firms in the lumber, paper, and fabricated metal sectors reported more mixed results with some declines in activity.

Most manufacturing contacts continued to expect general activity to increase over the next six months; however, the percentage of firms expecting future increases did retreat below 60 percent. By comparison, the percentage of firms expecting increases in future capital expenditures and future employment held mostly steady at levels just above 40 percent.

Nonfinancial Services

On balance, service-sector firms have continued to report modest growth in general activity since the prior Beige Book period. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in sales and the percentage of firms reporting greater orders were essentially unchanged. However, expectations about future growth were more widespread, with nearly two-thirds of the firms anticipating increased activity.

 

Fourth District  --  Cleveland (KY, OH, PA & WV)  return to District list

Business activity in the Fourth District expanded at a moderate pace since our last report. Labor demand remains strong, but worker shortages are limiting firms' ability to hire. Competition for qualified workers has led employers to raise wages. Some firms reported that the Tax Cut and Jobs Act is enabling them to increase investment and raise worker pay. ...

Employment and Wages

Labor markets in the Fourth District tightened during the survey period as demand for talent exceeded the available supply. Hiring was strongest in manufacturing and construction. Retailers pared their workforces, citing the end of the holiday shopping season and a need to gain efficiencies. Transportation firms trimmed payrolls because of lower seasonal demand and driver shortages that prompted efforts to boost efficiency. Across industries, the majority of firms reported replacing staff or making seasonal adjustments, though a sizeable share said they had created positions. Overall, the market for talent remains challenging. Turnover and an aging workforce were commonly cited as key challenges. Retirements are limiting the potential pool of workers. One construction contact noted that he is expecting significant labor shortages this year. A steel producer observed that every time his firm gets close to having a full staff, someone quits. The tough competition for workers led employers to raise wages during the survey period, especially for lower-wage jobs. Contacts speculated that savings resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will, in part, support pay increases over the short to medium terms. A few bankers expect to raise minimum pay to $15 per hour within the next year or two. However, few contacts expect the tax cuts to lead to more robust hiring. Rather, firms expect to maintain their recent hiring pace over the short term.

Manufacturing

Demand for manufactured goods increased during the survey period and on a year-over-year basis for many of our contacts. Strong customer confidence and seasonal demand changes for industrial products contributed to new manufacturing orders. One producer of residential HVAC systems reported a large increase in output during January compared with that of a year ago thanks to stronger consumer confidence and rising liquidity. Manufacturers of material handling and construction equipment were optimistic in their outlook. Rising commodity prices are encouraging demand for products from extractive and metal recycling equipment producers. Fabricated metals producers cited particularly strong growth because of decreased competition from imports. Imports have reportedly fallen because of stronger global demand and concerns about potential outcomes of pending trade cases. Most contacts in the fabricated metals industry reported that the TCJA and business-friendly policies are encouraging capital expansions and increased investment. They expect strong demand growth to continue with increased infrastructure spending. Contacts in the plastics industry relayed a mixed picture, with some contacts reporting slowing demand along seasonal trends and oversupply within the industry.

Nonfinancial Services

Activity in the nonfinancial services sector grew at a moderate-to-strong pace. ... Freight haulers were concerned about capacity constraints caused by labor shortages. This situation is forcing freight customers to transition from truck to rail carriers. Within the professional services sector, contacts from engineering, software development, and accounting firms reported the strongest demand growth, which they said was due to passage of the TCJA and confidence in the overall economy.

 

Fifth District  --  Richmond (MD, NC, SC, VA & WV)  return to District list

The Fifth District economy expanded at a moderate pace since our previous report. Manufacturing activity increased moderately but firms faced longer vendor lead times due, in part, to trucking delays. Trucking firms concurred, saying that driver shortages kept them from meeting the high demand. ... Retailers experienced a slight slowdown in recent weeks. Tourism and travel remained robust despite a few disruptions from wintry weather. Reports on commercial real estate conditions were mostly positive but varied by region. ... The demand for labor increased moderately and many employers had challenges finding workers. Wage pressures broadened, and more firms were raising starting wages and offering expanded benefits to attract new hires. Prices continued to grow at a modest pace, overall.

Employment and Wages

The demand for labor rose moderately in recent weeks. A staffing agent reported a modest increase in orders as the lack of available workers to fill permanent positions drove more employers to staffing firms for temporary help, particularly in manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution. Contacts also reported difficulty filling positions for IT professionals, engineers, accountants, health care providers, and construction workers. Some employers said they were willing to train underqualified workers but had trouble finding workers with soft skills and a strong work ethic. Upward wage pressures continued to broaden moderately. In addition to raising starting wages, there were some reports of employers looking to attract workers with expanded benefit packages and more flexible work schedules.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity grew moderately in recent weeks. A South Carolina copper parts manufacturer noted increased sales in both foreign and domestic markets, and an electronics manufacturer in Maryland reported an increase in defense-related orders. A South Carolina packaging manufacturer saw improved business conditions and began to increase capital investment in anticipation of higher interest rates. A Virginia wood-product manufacturer reported unpredictable business from week to week, as demand from restaurants increased while demand from retailers slowed. Manufacturers across the District continued to face supply chain disruptions resulting from delays in trucking.

Non-Financial Services

Demand for nonfinancial services rose moderately in recent weeks. Professional and business services and administrative support services were among the sectors to report the strongest demand. An advertising and marketing firm saw steady demand but noted that rising input costs were compressing profit margins as they were unable to raise prices for their services.

 

Sixth District  --  Atlanta (AL, FL, GA, LA, MS & TN)  return to District list

Business contacts indicated that economic activity in the Sixth District continued to expand, albeit modestly, from early January through mid-February. The near-term outlook among District contacts remains positive. On balance, the labor market remained tight and wage pressures were mild. ... Manufacturers noted solid activity.

Employment and Wages

District contacts continued to report challenges filling certain positions, particularly in information technology, nursing, some skilled crafts, long-haul transportation, manufacturing, accounting, and low-skill/entry-level positions in many industries. Many employers noted that they continued to broaden their geographical area search for candidates, often pursuing workers from rural areas or from abroad. Firms also resorted to workforce training and education services to increase the pipeline of qualified workers. Additionally, employers further adopted strategies to improve worker satisfaction as an important tool to help attract and retain workers.

Broadly, contacts noted steady but modest wage growth; however, an increasing number of contacts reported either recently increasing wages or plans to do so in the coming months. This narrative was apparent among firms in the transportation, retail, finance, construction, and professional and business services sectors.

Manufacturing

District manufacturers reported solid overall business activity since the last reporting period. Although most contacts indicated that production levels were holding steady, demand for their products continued to be relatively strong. Firms said that employment levels were flat to slightly up, and most contacts reported that they had open positions they were finding difficult to fill. Firms reported that input costs continued to rise, specifically steel, brass, and copper. In general, contacts are optimistic about future demand, suggesting that they expect sales levels to be up over the short to medium term.

 

Seventh District  --  Chicago (IA, IL, IN, MI & WI)  return to District list

Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District remained at a moderate pace in January and early February, and contacts expected growth to continue at that pace over the next 6 to 12 months. Employment and manufacturing production increased moderately, business spending rose modestly, construction and real estate activity grew slightly, and consumer spending was down slightly. Wages increased modestly, prices rose slightly, and financial conditions deteriorated some, on balance. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment increased at a moderate pace over the reporting period, and contacts expected gains to continue at this rate over the next 6 to 12 months. As they have for some time, contacts indicated that the labor market was tight and reported difficulties filling positions at all skill levels. Hiring was focused on professional and technical, production, and sales workers, though there was a notable pickup in the number of firms looking to hire administrative workers. In addition, a staffing firm that primarily supplies manufacturers with production workers reported an increase in billable hours. Wage growth remained modest overall, though the number of contacts who reported pay increases for management and production workers was higher than a few months ago. In addition, most firms reported increasing benefits costs.

Business Spending

Business spending increased modestly in January and early February. Retail and manufacturing contacts indicated that inventories were generally at comfortable levels. Capital spending increased modestly, though contacts expected moderate growth over the next 6 to 12 months. Outlays were primarily for replacing industrial and IT equipment and for renovating structures. Demand for commercial and industrial energy increased slightly, and transportation demand increased moderately.

Manufacturing

Growth in manufacturing production continued at a moderate rate in January and early February. Steel production increased at a moderate pace in response to solid end-user demand and the rebuilding of inventories at steel service centers. Demand for heavy machinery also increased moderately as mining and construction activity continued to grow. Demand for heavy trucks was strong. Order books for specialty metals manufacturers increased moderately: growth was spread across a wide variety of sectors, with particularly strong demand from the oil and gas, aerospace, and transportation sectors. Manufacturers of construction materials continued to report slow but steady increases in shipments, in line with the pace of improvement in construction. Auto production was flat, but remained at a solid level..

 

Eighth District  --  St. Louis (AR, KY, IL, IN, MO, MS & TN)  return to District list

Economic conditions have improved at a modest pace since our previous report. Firms reported modest increases in employment, despite continued difficulties finding workers. Wages continue to increase at a moderate pace, as do non-labor costs. ... On net, 54 percent of contacts expect conditions in 2018 to be better or somewhat better than in 2017.

Employment and Wages

Employment has increased modestly since the previous report. Of the contacts surveyed in early February, on net, 28 percent reported that first-quarter employment was higher or slightly higher than a year ago. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the labor market remained tight. Construction contacts continued to report shortages in qualified labor. Technology and manufacturing contacts in St. Louis and Memphis, respectively, also reported difficulties hiring suitable employees. Contacts in Louisville and Little Rock cited candidates' inability to pass drug tests as an impediment to hiring.

Contacts reported moderate wage growth since the previous report. On net, about 70 percent of contacts reported wages were higher or slightly higher than a year ago, and a similar share reported increases in labor costs. A construction contact in Louisville cited the need for higher wages to attract and retain skilled labor, while a contact in Little Rock reported that unskilled positions remain unfilled because of low wages.

Manufacturing

There has been little to no growth in manufacturing since our previous report. A slight majority of contacts reported that new orders and capacity utilization were lower in the first quarter relative to one year ago, while production remained at the same level. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of a decline in the share of contacts reporting growth in new orders and capacity utilization. However, the outlook of contacts remains optimistic, with most contacts expecting increases in production, new orders, and capacity utilization in the next three months.

Nonfinancial Services

Activity in the service sector has expanded moderately since the previous report. Transportation industry contacts reported that the dollar-value of sales has been higher in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Most contacts expect sales to remain higher in the second quarter. While dollar sales are up, they have largely met expectations: More than half of contacts reported sales met expectations with remaining contacts split between falling short and exceeding expectations.

 

Ninth District  --  Minneapolis (MI, MN, MT, ND, SD & WI)  return to District list

The Ninth District economy grew moderately overall since the last report, with employment, wages, and prices all seeing moderate growth. The District economy showed growth in consumer spending, tourism, commercial construction, manufacturing, real estate, energy, and mining. ...

Employment and Wages

Employment grew moderately since the last report, as hiring demand appeared robust, but tight labor restrained stronger hiring. An ad hoc survey of Minnesota staffing firms found that hours booked in the first six weeks of 2018 rose for most firms over the same period a year ago. Rural hiring sentiment increased notably over the previous month in Minnesota and the Dakotas, according to a February poll of rural bankers and other firms. Online job openings in January increased slightly in North Dakota over a year earlier; only the third increase in the past 18 months, but the second increase in the past four months. Tight labor markets, however, were limiting hiring. The number of job seekers registered with state workforce offices in January was 11 percent lower in North Dakota and 29 percent lower in Montana compared with a year earlier. Initial unemployment claims in the District over the first five weeks of 2018 fell almost 7 percent compared with a year earlier, though Minnesota's decline was less than 2 percent. Continuing claims fell by 8 percent. A Montana contact said that "many fear a better economy will exacerbate labor problems." There were several notable layoff events, including one at a Minnesota manufacturer that cut 900 workers. But sources suggested that job opportunities were available for those affected.

Wage pressures were moderate since the last report. A number of one-time bonuses were reported, stemming from recent changes in federal tax policy. Several contacts, including a Montana banker, also said raises were more likely because tax reform "provides a way to pay for increased wages" without increasing prices or reducing profits. ...

Manufacturing

District manufacturing activity increased modestly since the last report. An index of manufacturing conditions indicated increased activity in January compared with a month earlier in Minnesota and South Dakota; the index for North Dakota indicated flat to slightly decreased activity. A major fertilizer plant began operations in North Dakota. A solar-panel producer announced an expansion at a facility in Minnesota. An appliance manufacturer announced that it will close a plant in Minnesota.

 

Tenth District  --  Kansas City (CO, NM, MO, NE, OK & WY)  return to District list

Economic activity in the Tenth District continued to increase at a modest pace in late January and February, and a faster pace of expansion was expected in the months ahead. ... Manufacturing contacts reported moderate growth including an increase in production, shipments, new orders, order backlogs, and capital spending plans. Sales rose moderately at transportation, wholesale trade, and professional and high-tech firms, and further gains were anticipated in the months ahead. ... Employment and employee hours rose modestly compared to the previous survey period. Wages increased slightly in most sectors, and contacts expected stronger wage growth in the months ahead. ...

Employment and Wages

District employment and employee hours rose modestly in late January and February, and contacts expected further gains in the months ahead. Respondents in the retail trade, transportation, professional services, real estate, restaurant, tourism, and manufacturing sectors reported employment growth, while contacts in auto sales, wholesale trade, and health services noted a slight decline. However, employment exceeded year-ago levels in all sectors. Employee hours increased in most sectors, but declined modestly in the restaurant sector. Labor shortages were reported in the services sector including commercial drivers, skilled technicians, and salespeople.

Wages picked up slightly in most sectors, and contacts anticipated moderate wage growth in the coming months.

Manufacturing and Other Business Activity

Manufacturing and other business activity expanded at a moderate pace in late January and February. Manufacturers reported sustained growth in production, particularly for metals, machinery, and plastics products. Shipments, new orders, and order backlogs grew at a modest pace, and activity was higher than a year ago. Manufacturers' capital spending plans rose moderately, and firms' expectations for future activity remained strong.

Outside of manufacturing, transportation, wholesale trade, and professional and high-tech firms reported moderate growth in sales. Heading forward, transportation and wholesale trade firms expected strong sales growth, while professional and high-tech firms anticipated a moderate sales increase in the next six months. All types of firms reported moderate growth in capital spending plans.

 

Eleventh District  --  Dallas (LA, NM & TX)  return to District list

The Eleventh District economy expanded at a moderate pace over the past six weeks. The manufacturing sector continued to expand robustly, energy activity increased, and home sales continued to rise. Growth slowed slightly in financial and nonfinancial services, while retail sales declined modestly. Hiring was strong across most sectors. Widespread reports of labor market tightness and difficulty finding qualified workers continued, and more firms responded by raising wages than in prior reporting periods. ...

Employment and Wages

Overall employment growth remained solid, and upward wage pressure increased somewhat. Hiring continued at a robust pace in manufacturing, services, and retail. Hiring in the energy sector has expanded so far in 2018, although numerous contacts noted a severe shortage of workers in West Texas, particularly for skilled positions. A lack of qualified candidates continued to challenge businesses in other sectors as well, with several reports that this lack of workers was inhibiting growth. Several contacts in construction-related industries noted further tightening in labor markets due to hurricane-related rebuilding. More firms said they raised wages to retain and/or attract workers than in the prior reporting period, particularly in the manufacturing, retail, and hospitality sectors. Energy contacts also noted an increase in wage pressure, for upstream jobs as well as for downstream construction labor. Also, a staffing firm noted that pay increases were fairly widespread among workers earning about $9 per hour.

Looking ahead, firms were quite bullish on their hiring plans. More than half of the 362 firms responding to supplemental questions in the February Texas Business Outlook Surveys said they expect to increase their employment over the next six to twelve months, up roughly five percentage points from a year ago.

Manufacturing

Robust expansion in the manufacturing sector continued through February. Demand and output growth persisted, with a pickup in nondurables. Contacts noted strength in chemicals manufacturing in particular. One machinery manufacturer said business has been trending up over the past few months, with demand from the oil and gas sector playing a bigger role, and another said growth this year has been the best in the past five years. Outlooks overall remained highly positive, with contacts citing tax reform and a lower dollar as tailwinds, and rising interest rates and inflation as potential headwinds.

Nonfinancial Services

The nonfinancial services sector continued to grow but at a slightly slower pace. The professional and business services industry was a bright spot, with revenue growth accelerating so far in 2018. Demand for staffing services generally increased and was broad-based, especially in Dallas and Houston. Transportation services also remained strong--rail cargo volumes continued to increase, and airline demand held steady at robust levels. Weakness was largely concentrated in leisure and hospitality, although several contacts said the softness was largely due to colder-than-usual weather. Contacts in tourism areas along the Gulf Coast said business continues to struggle after the devastation of Hurricane Harvey. ...

 

Twelfth District  --  San Francisco (AK, AZ, CA, HI, ID, NV, OR, UT, & WA)  return to District list

Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of mid-January through late February. Conditions in the labor market remained tight, and upward wage pressures increased. Overall price inflation increased moderately. Sales of retail goods picked up slightly, and growth in consumer and business services remained solid. Activity in the manufacturing sector continued to pick up, and conditions in the agriculture sector deteriorated modestly. ...

Employment and Wages

Conditions in the labor market remained tight, and upward wage pressures increased over the reporting period. Contacts noted labor shortages in various sectors, especially for high-skilled positions. Across the District, contacts reported difficulty finding workers experienced in information technology, accounting, and finance. To attract stronger job candidates, some contacts in Seattle and the Mountain West increased nonwage compensation, including vacation time and stock grants. A banking contact observed moderate wage growth for entry-level positions to increase retention. Contacts in the health insurance sector increased their use of offshore labor and automation in response to tight labor market conditions. Minimum wage laws continued to put upward pressure on labor costs generally. A utility provider in Southern California reported flat employment growth in the industry because of muted sales activity.

Manufacturing

Activity in the manufacturing sector continued to pick up. A contact in the Mountain West noted that strong demand for microchips boosted production and caused some longer wait times for deliveries. Capacity utilization in the steel sector grew at a solid pace, driven by reduced overseas competition. Contacts in Washington noted that new orders for commercial aircraft were steady. Profitability in the aerospace sector increased, partly due to a pickup in sales of military aircraft and systems.

 

© 2017, Bruce Steinberg.  All rights reserved.

last updated March 07, 2018